Fiscal storms: Public spending and revenues in the aftermath of natural disasters
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چکیده
Recent! research! in!both! the! social! and!natural! sciences!has!been!devoted! to! increasing!our! ability!to!predict!disasters,!prepare!for!them!and!mitigate!their!costs.!Curiously,!we!appear!to! know!very!little!about!the!fiscal!consequences!of!disasters.!The!likely!fiscal!impact!of!a!natural! disaster! has! not! been! examined! before! in! any! comparable! or! comparative! framework.! We! estimate! and!quantify! the! fiscal! consequences!of!natural!disasters!using!quarterly! fiscal! and! disaster! data! for! a! large! panel! of! countries.! In! our! estimations,! we! employ! a! panel! VAR! framework! that! is! similar! to! Burnside! et! al.! (Journal! of! Economic! Theory,! 2004),! that! also! controls! for! the! business! cycle.! We! find! fiscal! behavior! in! the! aftermath! of! disasters! in! developed!countries!that!can!best!be!characterized!as!counter"cyclical.!In!contrast,!we!find!pro" cyclical! decreased! spending! and! increasing! revenues! in! developing! countries! following! large! natural!disasters.!We!quantify!these!effects.! ! JEL:!E62,!O23,!Q54.!
منابع مشابه
Fiscal Storms: Public Spending and Revenues in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters
Recent research in both the social and natural sciences has been devoted to increasing our ability to predict disasters, prepare for them and mitigate their costs. Curiously, we appear to know very little about the fiscal consequences of disasters. The likely fiscal impact of a natural disaster has not been examined before in any comparable or comparative framework. We estimate and quantify the...
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